Ag Market Commentary

The first trading day of June left corn futures 2 1/2 to 3 1/4 cents lower. National average cash corn prices are up 5% from the April 20th low but still down 17% from the start of the calendar year. NASS says US corn planting is 93% complete and emergence was 78%. The 5-yr averages for 05/31 are 89% and 73% respectively. National corn ratings improved 6 points from last week on the Brugler500 index to 382. USDA reported corn grind in April for ethanol was 245 mbu. That was down 40% from March, and 44% below April 2019. MYTD corn grind through April is 3.34 bbu, which is 67% of the WASDE May forecasted total for 2019/20, right on pace with 2/3 of the year gone. DDGS production dropped 38% from March to April with only 1.013m tons produced. Corn exports from the week ending May 28 were 477 mbu. That was up 1.2 mbu or 3% from last week and 14 mbu above the same week from last year. That brought MYTD exports to 1.12 bbu, which is 28% behind last year’s pace and 63% of the USDA full year forecast. Japan was the top destination with 39% of the weekly total.

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.23 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.27 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.35 3/4, down 3 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.47 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

After trading with midday gains, front month bean futures end the first day of June fractionally lower to 1 3/4 cents higher. Soybean meal futures were 10 to 60 cents lower on Monday, and soy oil futures were up 22 to 25 points. April soy crush from the Fats and Oils report was just above the average expectation with 183.4 mbu processed. That was 4.6% below March crush due to one less calendar day. Meal and oil production were also down 4.6% mo/mo with 4.04m tons and 2.1m lbs produced respectively. Soy oil stocks on hand at the end of April were 2.6b lbs. US soybean planting progressed 10 percentage points wk/wk to 75% complete. The average is 68%. Bean emergence was 52%, up 17 ppts and 8 ppts above average. Initial soybean ratings were 70% good/ex with a 375 Brugler500 score. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed 14.6 mbu of soybeans were shipped in the week ending May 28. That was 18% above last week’s exports, but 22% lower yr/yr. Accumulated bean shipments were 1.3 bbu through the same week. That outpaces last year’s program by 3% and is 78% of USDA’s forecast with 14 weeks left. Exports need to average 27 mbu/wk to reach the forecast.

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.40 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.43 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.45 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.52 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Jul 20 Soybean Meal closed at $283.10, down $0.10

Jul 20 Soybean Oil closed at $27.60, up $0.22

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

June trading starts off with a loss for front month wheat futures. KC was down the most, with 6 to 8 cent losses. SRW wheat futures traded 2 1/4 to 5 1/2 cents lower. MPLS wheat ended the first day of the month down 3 1/2 to 4 1/4 cents. Spring wheat was 91% planted and 67% emerged on May 31 peer USDA, both lagging the 5-year average. Initial spring wheat ratings were reported at 80% good/ex and 385 points on the Brugler500 index. Winter wheat ratings were down 7 points this week on the Brugler500 to 334, that is down 26 points from the initial spring rating back in April. TX was reported 32% harvested as of May 31, compared to the 21% average. Nationally winter wheat was 3% harvested compared to the 2% average. Last week’s wheat export shipments were 499,353 MT, bringing the MYTD export total to 24.896 MMT. USDA estimates 19/20 wheat shipments will reach 26.4 MMT including flour. China was the top destination for the week’s wheat shipments with 189,001 MT (37%).

Jul 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.15 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Jul 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.62 1/2, down 8 cents,

Jul 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.21 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle futures trading ended Monday with losses in June through October, and gains in Dec and Feb. Feeder cattle futures closed $0.77 to $2.02 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $0.40 lower on May 29 to $128.96. USDA reported light cash sales at $118 on Monday, with dressed at $187 and $180-$187. In proceeding with the unwinding process from unprecedented highs, wholesale boxed beef prices were starkly lower. Choice boxes were down $22.19 cwt. on Monday, which is the largest daily drop on record. Select boxes were down by $23.24 cwt. USDA estimates Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 110,000 head. That is 12,000 head below the comparative Monday from last year.

Jun 20 Cattle closed at $98.300, down $1.425,

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $98.975, down $0.625,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $101.375, down $0.050,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.125, up $0.775

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.200, up $1.450

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.775, up $1.750

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures ended the Monday session $1.62 to $2.25 lower. June hogs were down the most, at $54.60 ahead of next Friday’s (12th) expiration. The May 29 Fresh Bacon Index from CME was $107.58, down by $33.32 from last week. The CME Lean Hog index was down $1.70 on May 28, to $61.25. USDA National Average Base Hog price was $33.97 on Monday, down by $2.95. The National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was down $7.16 to $81.04 on Monday. Loins were down the most again, $25.41 lower to $112.08 cwt. USDA estimates Monday FI hog slaughter at 403,000 head.

Jun 20 Hogs closed at $54.600, down $2.250,

Jul 20 Hogs closed at $55.150, down $1.875

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $55.100, down $1.625

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The front month July cotton futures spiked 2.47 cents/lb higher to 60.06. The other front months closed 11 to 130 points higher on Monday. Old to new crop carry, from July to Dec, is inverted or backwardated at minus 135 points. USDA’s Cotton System Consumption and Stocks report showed that April ending stocks were up 7% from March to 1,716 RBs. Consumption in April was withheld due to confidentiality rules. Cotton planting advanced 13 percentage points on the week to 66% complete. The 2020/21 crop was 8% squared as of May 31, the average is 7%. Initial ratings for the 2020/21 cotton crop were reported 44% good/ex with a 340 on the Brugler500 index. That is 2 points higher than last year’s initial rating and was the highest initial rating since the 2017/18 crop. MO and TX initial ratings were the lowest, with 306 and 323 points on the Brugler500 index respectively. The May 29 Cotlook A index was 65.45c/lb after a 75 point drop. FSA’s AWP is 47.48 cents/lb, and the LDP for the week is 4.52 cents/lb.

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 60.06, up 247 points,

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 58.57, up 130 points

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 58.71, up 123 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 59.24, up 76 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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